Dollar/TL started the day with 19.8695 at 08.48 this morning. According to these data, TL has lost 1.5 percent of its value against the dollar compared to the pre-election period, while it has lost 5.2 percent since the earthquake and 5.8 percent since the beginning of the year. EuroTL started the day with 21.4970.
RISE IN EURO-DOLLAR PARITY
Euro/dollar, which started the day with 1.0771, is traded at 1.0786 with an increase of 0.14 percent as of 09:36. Euro/dollar, which saw the lowest 1.0760 and the highest 1.0821 levels yesterday, closed the day at 1.0771. Euro/dollar reached the lowest level of the last month with 1.0760 on 19.05.2023 and the highest level of the last month with 1.1095 on 26.04.2023.
FIRST IN RESERVE AFTER 21 YEARS
In order to limit the depreciation of TL during the election period, the CBRT lost 9 billion dollars in reserves in the week before the first round of the elections, while the bankers calculated that the loss last week was around 3.5 billion dollars.
Bankers’ calculations were that net reserves turned negative as of last week, likely for the first time since data recording began in early 2002.
Reserve adequacy remains the top concern in the markets. The decline in total reserves since the beginning of the year had reached 23.6 billion dollars before the election due to the effect of the new gold sales. If the official data comes close to the average of bankers’ estimates, the year-to-year decline will reach $27 billion.
Along with the CBRT’s import restrictions, gold sales accelerated during the election period to meet local demand. From the end of March until the election, the decrease in gold reserves reached 9 billion dollars. Bankers calculate that, including last week’s estimates, gold sales could reach $10 billion.
The expectation that the TL should depreciate more in the markets also increases the demand for foreign currency, forcing the CBRT reserves.
In addition to its reserves, the CBRT has regular revenues from foreign exchange purchases from exporters and tourism, KKM, citizenship transactions, etc., since last year. Turkey exports 250 billion dollars a year and this step means a regular 100 billion dollar reserve gain every 12 months.
It is still the most critical question for the markets whether there will be a result that will bring changes in policies, especially in the economy, after the second round.
Bankers state that the difference between foreign exchange buying and selling, which was close to 10 percent in the Grand Bazaar before the election, started to close last week, and the difference decreased to 2 percent this week.
SECOND ROUND OF ELECTIONS
Between the two rounds of the election, the loan market came to a standstill, as the bankers called it, except for exceptional and mandatory situations, while the annual yield of around 40 percent for monthly time deposits, which started in high-volume transactions in deposit interests, began to spread towards lower amounts in some banks.
Today, the real sector confidence index for May and the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate are on the internal data agenda.
Although the AKP, which has been in power for more than 20 years in Turkey, lost its voter support by 7 points compared to the previous election, the “terror” discourses that the opposition associated with the PKK were effective in the fact that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, as a presidential candidate, finished the first round ahead, while the opposition opposed for the second round. he’s wrapped up in speech.